货币主义
货币主义(英语:Monetarism),又称重货币学派、货币学派,是1960年代形成的经济学流派,以挑战凯恩斯主义的面貌出现。其领袖人物为米尔顿·弗里德曼,他在1976年10月获得诺贝尔经济学奖。货币经济学认为货币的供给量在短期内对国家的产出、在长期上对物价水平都有巨大的影响。这种货币政策的目标是透过增加货币的供应量来实行。
货币主义的核心命题是:在经济活动中,货币扮演着最重要的角色,通货膨胀的原因就是发行过多货币。政府的角色是通过中央银行,调控在经济体中流通的货币数量,除此之外,不需要干预经济活动。
理论
货币主义源起于米尔顿·弗里德曼与安娜·施瓦茨合著的《美国货币史》,并指出“通货膨胀永远是无处不在的货币现象。”他批评美国政府当时采用的凯恩斯主义和约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯基于政府干预的理论。他长期批评美国联邦储备委员会在货币政策,认为美联储的货币紧缩政策是大萧条的主要原因,而发行过多货币造成了70年代的通货膨胀。弗里德曼赞成中央银行透过统计国家生产力的状况和需求,来订定让货币供需平衡的货币政策。
米尔顿·弗里德曼认为:“通货膨胀在任何时间、任何地点都是因为发行过多货币。”所谓“结构性通胀”、“输入型通胀”都是无稽之谈。中央银行的货币发行过多则造成通货膨胀,过少则造成通货紧缩。货币主义认为,在短期,货币供给的变动虽然能够影响实际经济状况,例如就业;但在长期,它能影响到的只有通货膨胀。主张货币发行量的增长率要保持一个固定的速度,让经济中的个体对通货膨胀有完全的预期能力,这种货币机制被称为弗里德曼规则。
历史
货币主义在提出之初并不受重视,直到撒切尔夫人在英国采用货币主义政策,使英国经济成功复苏,货币主义政策开始受到各国重视,使得各国中央银行政策逐渐偏向货币主义,取代凯恩斯主义的地位。
延伸阅读
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- Warburton, Clark, 1966. Depression, Inflation, and Monetary Policy; Selected Papers, 1945–1953 Johns Hopkins Press. Amazon Summary in Anna J. Schwartz, Money in Historical Perspective, 1987.