天際線掃描

天際線掃描地平線掃描劍橋大學生物學家William Sutherland在2008年提出的對環境生物多樣性問題的一種未來學研究方法[1][2]

天際線掃描方法是基於德爾菲技術(Delphi Technique)改進的系統預測方法。從2009年開始每年進行年度全球環境保護的天際線掃描。方法是每年組成一個20人的專家組,每個專家再獨立與其他人一起提出兩個以上的全球性的環境保護問題,並提供一個對問題簡單的描述。然後由每個專家對所有問題進行評議打分(1-1000分),並選出35個得分最高的問題,以及一些認為值得討論的問題。在提交給專家組評議後,重新打分選出15個得分最高問題,作為年度全球環境保護問題[1]

歷年全球環境保護天際線掃描問題

參考文獻

  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 Zhigang, Jiang. Horizon Scanning: a new method for environmental and biodiversity conservation. Biodiversity Science. 2014, 22 (2): 115. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1003.2014.14032 . 
  2. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Bailey, Mark J.; Bainbridge, Ian P.; Brereton, Tom; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Drewitt, Joanna; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Dusic, Nicholas R.; Freckleton, Robert P.; Gaston, Kevin J.; Gilder, Pam M.; Green, Rhys E.; Heathwaite, A. Louise; Johnson, Sally M.; Macdonald, David W.; Mitchell, Roger; Osborn, Daniel; Owen, Roger P.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie V.; Prosser, Havard; Pullin, Andrew S.; Rose, Paul; Stott, Andrew; Tew, Tom; Thomas, Chris D.; Thompson, Des B. A.; Vickery, Juliet A.; Walker, Matt; Walmsley, Clive; Warrington, Stuart; Watkinson, Andrew R.; Williams, Rich J.; Woodroffe, Rosie; Woodroof, Harry J. PRIORITY CONTRIBUTION: Future novel threats and opportunities facing UK biodiversity identified by horizon scanning. Journal of Applied Ecology. 2007-10-09, 45 (3): 821–833. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01474.x.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
  3. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Daszak, Peter; Depledge, Michael H.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Garthwaite, Rachel; Gibbons, David W.; De Lurio, Jennifer; Impey, Andrew J.; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David; Madgwick, Jane; Margerison, Ceri; Maynard, Trevor; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Prior, Stephanie; Redford, Kent H.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2010-01, 25 (1): 1–7. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.003.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
  4. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Bennun, Leon; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica. Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2011-01, 26 (1): 10–16. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2010.11.002. 
  5. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Ros; Bennun, Leon; Chapman, Eleanor; Clout, Mick; C?t?, Isabelle M.; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Lindenmayer, David B.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2012-01, 27 (1): 12–18. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.10.011.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
  6. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Bardsley, Sarah; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael H.; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Margerison, Ceri; Monk, Kathryn A.; Norris, Kenneth; Peck, Lloyd S.; Prior, Stephanie V.; Scharlemann, J?rn P.W.; Spalding, Mark D.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2013-01, 28 (1): 16–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.10.022.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
  7. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Aveling, Rosalind; Brooks, Thomas M.; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Fellman, Liz; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Rodr?guez, Jon Paul; Smith, Rebecca K.; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Watkinson, Andrew R. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2014-01, 29 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004 . 
  8. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Clout, Mick; Depledge, Michael; Dicks, Lynn V.; Dinsdale, Jason; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Monk, Kathryn A.; Ockendon, Nancy; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockström, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C. A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2015. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2015-01, 30 (1): 17–24. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2014.11.002.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)
  9. ^ Sutherland, William J.; Broad, Steven; Caine, Jacqueline; Clout, Mick; Dicks, Lynn V.; Doran, Helen; Entwistle, Abigail C.; Fleishman, Erica; Gibbons, David W.; Keim, Brandon; LeAnstey, Becky; Lickorish, Fiona A.; Markillie, Paul; Monk, Kathryn A.; Mortimer, Diana; Ockendon, Nancy; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Peck, Lloyd S.; Pretty, Jules; Rockstr?m, Johan; Spalding, Mark D.; Tonneijck, Femke H.; Wintle, Bonnie C.; Wright, Katherine E. A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. 2016-01, 31 (1): 44–53. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2015.11.007.  無效|doi-access=subscription (幫助)