過程追蹤

過程追蹤（process tracing）是一種用於開發和檢驗理論的研究方法。^[1]^[2]^[3]該方法通常被理解為一種基於因果機制進行推論的「案例內」方法。^[4]^[5]該方法被用於社會科學（如心理學^[6]）以及自然科學。^[5]

使用過程追蹤的學者根據測試（特別是風中稻草測試、箍測試、確鑿證據測試、雙重決定性測試）的強度評估證據的權重。^[5]重要的不僅僅是觀察的數量，還有觀察的質量和方式。^[5]^[6]使用貝葉斯概率，可以通過過程跟蹤從一小部分數據中做出強有力的因果推斷。^[5]^[7]過程追蹤是一種突出的案例研究方法。^[8]

延伸閱讀

Bennett, A. and A.L. George (2001). "Case Studies and Process Tracing in History and Political Science: Similar Strokes for Different Foci" in C. Elman and M.F. Elman (eds.) Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. MIT Press pp. 137–166.
Checkel. J. T. (2006) "Tracing Causal Mechanisms." The International Studies Review 8: 362-370.
Checkel, J. T. (2008) "Process Tracing." in A. Klotz and D. Prakash (eds.) Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Pluralist Guide. Palgrave. pp. 114–129.
Vennesson, P. and I. Wiesner (2014) "Process Tracing in Case Studies." in J. Soeters, P. Shields and S Reitjens (eds) Routledge Handbook of Research Methods in Military Studies. Routledge. pp. 92–103.

參考資料

^ Collier, David. Understanding Process Tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2011, 44 (4): 823–830. ISSN 1049-0965. doi:10.1017/s1049096511001429  .
^ Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (編). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.
^ Ford, J. Kevin; Schmitt, Neal; Schechtman, Susan L.; Hults, Brian M.; Doherty, Mary L. Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1989, 43 (1): 75–117. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9.
^ Jacobs, Alan M.; Büthe, Tim; Arjona, Ana; Arriola, Leonardo R.; Bellin, Eva; Bennett, Andrew; Björkman, Lisa; Bleich, Erik; Elkins, Zachary; Fairfield, Tasha; Gaikwad, Nikhar. The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications. Perspectives on Politics. 2021,. Supplementary materials, Pt 2: 171–208 [2023-04-29]. ISSN 1537-5927. S2CID 232050726. doi:10.1017/S1537592720001164. （原始內容存檔於2023-07-08）（英語）.
^ ^5.0 ^5.1 ^5.2 ^5.3 ^5.4 Bennett, Andrew. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Brady, Henry E; Collier, David , 編. Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. 2008 [2023-04-29]. ISBN 978-0-19-928654-6. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001. （原始內容存檔於2021-03-23）（英語）.
^ ^6.0 ^6.1 Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (編). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.
^ Fairfield, Tasha; Charman, Andrew E. Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Cambridge University Press. 2022. ISBN 978-1-108-42164-5 （英語）.
^ Mahoney, James. Mechanisms, Bayesianism, and process tracing. New Political Economy. 2016-09-02, 21 (5): 493–499. ISSN 1356-3467. S2CID 156167903. doi:10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803.

[:0-1] Collier, David. Understanding Process Tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2011, 44 (4): 823–830. ISSN 1049-0965. doi:10.1017/s1049096511001429  .

[Handbook2011-2] Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (編). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.

[3] Ford, J. Kevin; Schmitt, Neal; Schechtman, Susan L.; Hults, Brian M.; Doherty, Mary L. Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1989, 43 (1): 75–117. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9.

[4] Jacobs, Alan M.; Büthe, Tim; Arjona, Ana; Arriola, Leonardo R.; Bellin, Eva; Bennett, Andrew; Björkman, Lisa; Bleich, Erik; Elkins, Zachary; Fairfield, Tasha; Gaikwad, Nikhar. The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications. Perspectives on Politics. 2021,. Supplementary materials, Pt 2: 171–208 [2023-04-29]. ISSN 1537-5927. S2CID 232050726. doi:10.1017/S1537592720001164. （原始內容存檔於2023-07-08）（英語）.

[:2-5] 5.0 ^5.1 ^5.2 ^5.3 ^5.4 Bennett, Andrew. Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Brady, Henry E; Collier, David , 編. Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective. The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. 2008 [2023-04-29]. ISBN 978-0-19-928654-6. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001. （原始內容存檔於2021-03-23）（英語）.

[Handbook20112-6] 6.0 ^6.1 Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R. (編). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis. 2011.

[:5-7] Fairfield, Tasha; Charman, Andrew E. Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Cambridge University Press. 2022. ISBN 978-1-108-42164-5 （英語）.

[:4-8] Mahoney, James. Mechanisms, Bayesianism, and process tracing. New Political Economy. 2016-09-02, 21 (5): 493–499. ISSN 1356-3467. S2CID 156167903. doi:10.1080/13563467.2016.1201803.

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